Wednesday, May 10, 2017

Single Family Home Boom Coming

Two factors combine to suggest that a boom may be underway in the single family home market: 1) the tax laws; 2) the massive excess reserves in the commercial banking system.

The tax laws still provide for deductible mortgage interest payments and essentially tax free capital gains on the vast majority of home sales.  No other asset on the planet has that kind of special tax treatment. 

Meanwhile, Bernanke's policy of buying over $ 4 trillion in fixed income assets has resulted in over $ 4 trillion of excess reserves in the banking system.  This level of excess reserves would permit a huge expansion in residential mortgage lending without running into reserve or capital limitations.  This is a fuse ready to be lit.

Since 2009, the home owner percentages have fallen, but that may be coming to an end.  There are already signs of booming prices in many residential markets.

We learned nothing from the pre-2008 real estate boom.  All of the tax bonanzas that led to the boom are still in the tax code and Fannie and Freddie are alive and well.

History will repeat itself in the housing market.

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