Wednesday, December 2, 2015

A Toothless Fed

For four years, the Fed has been suggesting a forthcoming rate rise.  Once again, a rate rise is expected in the next two weeks by 70 percent of prognosticators.  Will it happen? Not likely.

The massive excess reserves in the commercial banking system, put in place by the various QE's, makes it unlikely that the Fed can do much of anything but hope and pray that rates, on their own, will drift higher. 

The Fed has been waiting for this to happen for years.  The market is unlikely to accommodate the Fed in the next two weeks, so don't expect a Fed rate rise in December.

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