Friday, September 9, 2011

Wasn't Listening to Me....Obviously

I was sorely disappointed that the President did not follow my advice in Thursday night's speech and offer up the repeal of his entire first two and a half years in office. I guess there wasn't much chance of that after all.

What he did was promise to push for more of the same measures that have stifled economic recovery in the US and he seemed truly unaware of the real reasons that the economy is adrift. So, at least, you can say one thing for the man -- he is consistent and (intellectually) deaf.

So, what's the future look like. If the pundits are right that folks are souring on the tea party, then the future cannot be very good. The main agenda for the tea party is rolling back the size and scope of government and tackling our national debt problems. If that is truly out of favor, then we will eventually be making the kind of headlines that Greece is making, without any savior (Germany) as a prospective bailor.

In the short run, though, what happens with the economy? How bad can it get? It can get worse, but not a lot worse. There are too many unemployed resources out there for things to deteriorate too much from here. Businesses will have to spend a fair amount of time figuring out how to do end-runs around government policies. There is simply no way, other than out-sourcing and labor-saving, to operate a growth business with the current climate of government intervention. It will take some time.

The price will be paid, not by Jeffrey Immelt (GE's CEO) or Warren Buffett or the various wealthy folks who support the Obama Administration. No indeed. The losers from the Obama Stagnation will be the poor, the minorities, the unemployed, and large swaths of middle America. The rich and comfortable and the public employees and union members who still have jobs will cheer the Obama crushing-machine on. While those, least able to protect themselves will be savaged by the big government suffocation promoted by the Obama Administration and its allies.

So, look for very slow, anemic economic growth in the US and Western Europe. Perhaps, another mild downturn, but nothing big on the downside. Stock markets should fare well, even though volatile. There will be rolling defaults in Western Europe and effective defaults among selected states in the US. But, all will survive the Obama policies in time.

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