Monday, July 27, 2009

Some Encouraging Signs

To begin with, the Obama onslaught seems to be weakening. Both "cap and trade" and "health care" may not make it. It's too soon to know for certain, but public support has vanished for both projects and many Democrats in close districts and close states are having second thoughts.

The problem for the Democrats is that if these bills pass, there are no winners in the foreseeable future, only losers. Cap and trade simply raises everyone's electricity bill and imposes new burdens on what people can do with their own property. Where's the plus side of the ledger? Who gets happy? No one. Not even the environmentalists, since global carbon emissions are virtually unaffected.

A similar, but more complicated story, applies to the "health care" bills that are in the Congress. No one's health care will improve and no one's health insurance will become less expensive. On the negative side of the ledger, health care costs will definitely be headed higher (see the Congressional Budget Office study), taxes are definitely headed higher and most people will have major negative changes in their insurance policies that they didn't expect.

So, there aren't any real winners in any of this, but lots of losers. It is easy to see why Democrats who won close elections in the past may be getting exceedingly nervous. The bloom seems to be off the rose for Obama as well. His crude attack on the Cambridge police, an opinion not burdened by knowledge of the facts, laid an egg with voters according to the polls.

Big victories lead to extreme arrogance and arrogance breeds trouble. The Obama gang is in trouble. This is actually good news for the economy. If the Obama plans can be defeated, the economy would then stand a good chance of recovery. There might even be some hope for employment gains, but that is less likely. The Congress has already passed enough "toxic employee" legislation to make it much, much tougher for employment rolls to improve.

But things look better now than they did a month ago. Three cheers for the Blue Dogs!

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