The narrow vote (five vote margin)in the House of Representatives for the passage of the Obamacare bill just shows how far away the road to victory for Obama really is. Senator Harry Reid has already announced that there will be no vote in the Senate until 2010, within months of the Congressional elections. Once the Senate votes, there will be need to be a new bill refashioned by a conference committee composed of House and Senate members to be brought back before both the House and Senate. This is likely not to occur until the Spring of 2010, at which time every member of the House of Representatives will be scrambling to get re-elected. 80 Democratic Congressman are in Congressional Districts that McCain carried over Obama in 2008. All of these folks are in trouble over Obamacare. Obamacare is dead regardless of the House vote on Saturday.
To see why, one need only read today's article in the NY Times by Peter Goodman entitled "The Recession's Over, But Not the Layoffs." Jobs are far more important than Obamacare to the voters, as one would expect since nearly 60 percent of voters are now polling against Obamacare. Barely 40 percent of the electorate supports Obamacare at this point. What matters to voters is the economy and their jobs. Obama has forgotten this, but the public has not.
Goodman's article is an interesting one. He notes that for some reason (unstated in the article) businesses are continuing to lay off employees and are reluctant to hire new employees even as business improves. Why? Goodman really gives no reasons, but the reasons are obvious. Government mandates have made employees much, much more expensive. This means that businesses will find other ways to produce goods rather than hire much more expensive employees.
The entire Obama program, whether one thinks of Obamacare, Cap and Trade, or card check, simply reinforces businesses in their determination to avoid hiring. Only die-hard leftwing Democrats like Paul Krugman deny the obvious. But, then, Klugman is not a businessperson and he doesn't care what their problems may or may not be. But, at the end of the day, businesses make the hiring decisions, not politicians. Obama policies and threatened Obama policies are enough to convince to any rational businessperson to put off hiring as long as possible and to outsource to China and India as much as possible.
No surprises here.
Sunday, November 8, 2009
Friday, November 6, 2009
Obamacare Is Dead
There will be no health care "reform." Obamacare is dead.
The centerpiece of the Obama legislative program will never make it. It may, narrowly, pass the House of Representatives on Saturday, but the chances in the Senate have dimmed dramatically. There is some chance the vote will fail in the House on Saturday. We shall see. The AMA and the AARP may be supportive, but their membership is not.
History buffs will note the striking similarity between Clinton's first year in office and Obama's. Both stumbled on health care "reform." Clinton wisely abandoned the effort. Obama seems determined to go down with the ship. If, by some miracle, Obamacare survives, Obama will be drowned by voter revulsion in 2012. Clinton woke up; Obama sleeps on.
Obama turns out to be a tone deaf politician. Who would have expected that?
The centerpiece of the Obama legislative program will never make it. It may, narrowly, pass the House of Representatives on Saturday, but the chances in the Senate have dimmed dramatically. There is some chance the vote will fail in the House on Saturday. We shall see. The AMA and the AARP may be supportive, but their membership is not.
History buffs will note the striking similarity between Clinton's first year in office and Obama's. Both stumbled on health care "reform." Clinton wisely abandoned the effort. Obama seems determined to go down with the ship. If, by some miracle, Obamacare survives, Obama will be drowned by voter revulsion in 2012. Clinton woke up; Obama sleeps on.
Obama turns out to be a tone deaf politician. Who would have expected that?
Wednesday, November 4, 2009
Seismic Shift in Independant Voters
The numbers were dramatic yesterday in both Virginia and New Jersey. In 2008, independent voters in both states favored Obama. By nearly two to one margins, independents yesterday voted for the Republican gubernatorial candidate in both Virginia and New Jersey. That dramatic shift reflects lots of things, no doubt. But, clearly the Obama economic policies do not sit well with these voters. Exit polls said that "economic issues" were the top area of concern for more than eighty percent of the voters in both states.
The exception was the 23rd district race in New York State, where 55 percent of the voters chose candidates supporting the Obama programs. The peculiar dynamics of that three way race may explain the outcome, but, on the issues, the results were favorable to the Obama program.
But, Virginia and New Jersey were the big enchiladas and the results from independents should help focus the White House on measures to aid the ailing economy instead of more programs designed to crush it. Hopefully, this will put the brakes on health care legislation, cap and trade and card check -- all programs that threaten the economy with no offsetting benefit.
The exception was the 23rd district race in New York State, where 55 percent of the voters chose candidates supporting the Obama programs. The peculiar dynamics of that three way race may explain the outcome, but, on the issues, the results were favorable to the Obama program.
But, Virginia and New Jersey were the big enchiladas and the results from independents should help focus the White House on measures to aid the ailing economy instead of more programs designed to crush it. Hopefully, this will put the brakes on health care legislation, cap and trade and card check -- all programs that threaten the economy with no offsetting benefit.
Tuesday, November 3, 2009
NY Times Distorts the News Once Again
Dateline: New York's 23rd Congressional District where the Republican Candidate, Dede Scozzafaza, dropped out of the special election to fill this heavily Republican Congressional seat and endorsed the Democratic Candidate Bill Owen. This leaves Conservative Party candidate, Doug Hoffman, in a position to pick up the Congressional seat. (Obama received 52 percent of the vote in this district over John McCain twelve months ago).
According to the NY Times today, the issue that prompted Doug Hoffman to enter the race and surge to a commanding lead were: 1) abortion; 2) gay marriage. According to the times, Scozzafaza supports both, but Hoffman is opposed. But, in actuality, few voters in the 23rd have any interest whatever in either of these issues. (It's worth noting that a majority of Americans, right or wrong, agree with Hoffman on these issues).
No, the real issues, not mentioned by the NY Times is that Scozzafaza supported the Obama stimulus package, supports Obama's health care plans, and support the infamous "card check" plan that denies workers a vote on whether or not to have a union. On those issues Scozzafaza, her Democratic opponent and President Obama are in 100 percent agreement. Those are the real issues. And Doug Hoffman disagrees with all three on these issues.
Every poll in the 23rd district shows voter interest in these latter, bread and butter economic issues, and no interest whatsoever in the social issues. Why the NY Times has so distorted the facts of this campaign is open to speculation.
In any event, the battle in the 23rd District of NY State is a battle over economic issues, not social issues. If Hoffman wins, it is a repudiation of the Obama agenda, not a statement about voter preferences on social issues...regardless of what the NY Times may like to think.
According to the NY Times today, the issue that prompted Doug Hoffman to enter the race and surge to a commanding lead were: 1) abortion; 2) gay marriage. According to the times, Scozzafaza supports both, but Hoffman is opposed. But, in actuality, few voters in the 23rd have any interest whatever in either of these issues. (It's worth noting that a majority of Americans, right or wrong, agree with Hoffman on these issues).
No, the real issues, not mentioned by the NY Times is that Scozzafaza supported the Obama stimulus package, supports Obama's health care plans, and support the infamous "card check" plan that denies workers a vote on whether or not to have a union. On those issues Scozzafaza, her Democratic opponent and President Obama are in 100 percent agreement. Those are the real issues. And Doug Hoffman disagrees with all three on these issues.
Every poll in the 23rd district shows voter interest in these latter, bread and butter economic issues, and no interest whatsoever in the social issues. Why the NY Times has so distorted the facts of this campaign is open to speculation.
In any event, the battle in the 23rd District of NY State is a battle over economic issues, not social issues. If Hoffman wins, it is a repudiation of the Obama agenda, not a statement about voter preferences on social issues...regardless of what the NY Times may like to think.
Monday, November 2, 2009
A Catastrophe for Americans
Today's Wall Street Journal analysis of the Pelosi Health Care Bill is detailed and accurate. The Journal editorial describes the Pelosi bill as ranking "with the Smoot-Hawley tariff and FDR's National Industrial Recovery Act as among the worst bills Congress has ever seriously contemplated." Amen. No wonder 56 percent of Americans are opposed to this bill, which effectively destroys the American health care system and US fiscal credibility. If this passes and becomes law, watch for US Treasury auctions to get more and more dicey.
Sunday, November 1, 2009
Referendum on Health Care Reform
The voters finally get a shot. Obama was elected to deliver bipartisan reform to many problems that Americans face. Events, however, overtook the Obama presidency. That happened in the Bush presidency with 9/11 coming in the first year of the first Bush Term.
What happened to Obama is that the recession, somewhat mild (7 percent unemployment) when he was inaugurated, quickly went from mild to severe. Now, in his tenth month in office, Obama faces almost ten percent unemployment with that rate likely to grow not decline in coming months.
After 9/11 President Bush made "fighting terror" his number one priority, for good or evil. Obama has chosen to mostly ignore the recesssion.
The stimulus bill initiated by the Obama White House in February was written by the House of Representatives Democratic leadership -- mostly Nancy Pelosi. The bill was a grabbag of new entitlements, wealth transfers, and a host of political payoffs to somewhat shadowy groups (like Acorn). There was little infrastructure spending in the $800 billion bill that was passed into law by heavy Democratic majorities. It is now painfully obvious that this law has provided virtually no stimulus. So, now what?
Obama's refusal to acknowledge the ever-deepening recession and growing unemployment is causing a major reassessment by voters of the Obama presidency. It is showing up in every opinion poll.
Americans, for good reason, do not want Obama's health care reform. The latest polls were 56 percent opposed and only 40 percent favorable. But, Obama and the Democrats remain undaunted by the growing unpopularity of their proposals. "Cap and trade" isn't even supported by the major environmental groups who, you would think, would be behind Obama's major environmental initiative. "Card Check" is mostly a sop to well paid union executives. The public, while liking Obama, doesn't support any of his economic agenda.
At some point the White House should "listen up." Tuesday might provide that magic moment.
Virginia is a good example of a referendum on White House policies. McDonnell began his campaign as a race against the Obama policies and that is exactly what has brought him thumping poll majorities. Governor Corzine is in serious trouble in New Jersey, a state where Democratic candidates for governor normally pull over 60 percent of the electorate. In upstate New York, a Republican candidate on record as favoring "Card Check" and the bulk of the Obama health care program has been forced to withdraw by overwhelming public opposition to the Obama program. Look for the third party candidate, Hoffman, to win that race handily.
Bill Clinton was able to rescue his presidency by backing away from Hillarycare, the absurd health care reform proposals advanced by Clinton's wife and overwhelmingly rejected by the public and by Democratic lawmakers. Clinton went on to become a very popular president and was handily re-elected to a second term. Clinton reversed course when he saw that the public was not on his side on the issues.
So, what is Obama doing? He is arguing that the 56 percent of Americans who oppose his health care reform are unpatriotic, ignorant, and mostly liars. Well, maybe so. but 56 percent is 56 percent.
Obama's narrow band of followers is not likely to provide enough numbers to survive the Republican onslaught in 2010 and is not likely to provide enough support for his own re-election.
Watch the results on Tuesday. It portends the future.
What happened to Obama is that the recession, somewhat mild (7 percent unemployment) when he was inaugurated, quickly went from mild to severe. Now, in his tenth month in office, Obama faces almost ten percent unemployment with that rate likely to grow not decline in coming months.
After 9/11 President Bush made "fighting terror" his number one priority, for good or evil. Obama has chosen to mostly ignore the recesssion.
The stimulus bill initiated by the Obama White House in February was written by the House of Representatives Democratic leadership -- mostly Nancy Pelosi. The bill was a grabbag of new entitlements, wealth transfers, and a host of political payoffs to somewhat shadowy groups (like Acorn). There was little infrastructure spending in the $800 billion bill that was passed into law by heavy Democratic majorities. It is now painfully obvious that this law has provided virtually no stimulus. So, now what?
Obama's refusal to acknowledge the ever-deepening recession and growing unemployment is causing a major reassessment by voters of the Obama presidency. It is showing up in every opinion poll.
Americans, for good reason, do not want Obama's health care reform. The latest polls were 56 percent opposed and only 40 percent favorable. But, Obama and the Democrats remain undaunted by the growing unpopularity of their proposals. "Cap and trade" isn't even supported by the major environmental groups who, you would think, would be behind Obama's major environmental initiative. "Card Check" is mostly a sop to well paid union executives. The public, while liking Obama, doesn't support any of his economic agenda.
At some point the White House should "listen up." Tuesday might provide that magic moment.
Virginia is a good example of a referendum on White House policies. McDonnell began his campaign as a race against the Obama policies and that is exactly what has brought him thumping poll majorities. Governor Corzine is in serious trouble in New Jersey, a state where Democratic candidates for governor normally pull over 60 percent of the electorate. In upstate New York, a Republican candidate on record as favoring "Card Check" and the bulk of the Obama health care program has been forced to withdraw by overwhelming public opposition to the Obama program. Look for the third party candidate, Hoffman, to win that race handily.
Bill Clinton was able to rescue his presidency by backing away from Hillarycare, the absurd health care reform proposals advanced by Clinton's wife and overwhelmingly rejected by the public and by Democratic lawmakers. Clinton went on to become a very popular president and was handily re-elected to a second term. Clinton reversed course when he saw that the public was not on his side on the issues.
So, what is Obama doing? He is arguing that the 56 percent of Americans who oppose his health care reform are unpatriotic, ignorant, and mostly liars. Well, maybe so. but 56 percent is 56 percent.
Obama's narrow band of followers is not likely to provide enough numbers to survive the Republican onslaught in 2010 and is not likely to provide enough support for his own re-election.
Watch the results on Tuesday. It portends the future.
Thursday, October 29, 2009
The Political Ramifications of Obama Care
The Obama White House push for an omnibus health care bill is really surprising in light of its likely political impact. Once enacted, there are few Americans that won't feel dramatic cost increases and substantial reductions in health care provision. Within the next twelve months, most American families' health care costs will rise more than thirty percent thanks to Obamacare and within twelve months, they will know it. What happens in twelve months? The 2010 Congressional elections -- that's what.
Republicans should vote for cloture and then vote against Obamacare. That way they can insure its passage. It is a free pass for the Republican Party for a generation. Virtually no American will feel better about their health care than before Obamacare. Those on Medicare will be especially aggrieved since over $ 50 billion per year of their current care is eliminated in all versions of Obamacare. The over 65 population is the single fastest growing demographic in the American population, which will become solidly Republican for years to come.
How about the young? The burden of cost is shifted to the young in this bill. The young have only slight need for health care insurance, but they will pay mightily under Obamacare. Their romantic illusions of life under Obama will be shattered by the realities of Obamacare.
There simply are no winners, except Republican politicians who will not likely be in any big hurry to roll Obamacare back. Better it stay in place as a reminder of what happens when government takes over a large sector of the economy. Too bad if you need health care.
At least with "card check," the unions are happy. No one will be happy with Obamacare. It may as well be retitled the "Republican Congressional Full Employment Act"
Republicans should vote for cloture and then vote against Obamacare. That way they can insure its passage. It is a free pass for the Republican Party for a generation. Virtually no American will feel better about their health care than before Obamacare. Those on Medicare will be especially aggrieved since over $ 50 billion per year of their current care is eliminated in all versions of Obamacare. The over 65 population is the single fastest growing demographic in the American population, which will become solidly Republican for years to come.
How about the young? The burden of cost is shifted to the young in this bill. The young have only slight need for health care insurance, but they will pay mightily under Obamacare. Their romantic illusions of life under Obama will be shattered by the realities of Obamacare.
There simply are no winners, except Republican politicians who will not likely be in any big hurry to roll Obamacare back. Better it stay in place as a reminder of what happens when government takes over a large sector of the economy. Too bad if you need health care.
At least with "card check," the unions are happy. No one will be happy with Obamacare. It may as well be retitled the "Republican Congressional Full Employment Act"
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)
